As tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine, experts are warning the crisis may lead to a global conflict and could impact Western countries, including the state of their democracies.
Ukraine began urging its citizens to leave Russia after tensions escalated dramatically Tuesday when Russian President Vladimir Putin got the OK from lawmakers to use military force outside his country.
This comes after Putin signed a decree recognizing two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, which Western nations fear are potential ground zeros for invasion.
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Augusta University associate professor Craig Douglas Albert told CTVNews.ca the move highlights a rise in authoritarianism that could pose a threat beyond Eastern Europe, with an autocracy taking over a democracy by force.
During a Zoom interview on Wednesday from Augusta, Ga., Albert said the current crisis parallels the shift seen during the Cold War when "more authoritarian regimes lined up against more democratic regimes."
"The West, North America, particularly with NATO, can be concerned that if you have a… more authoritarian power in Russia trying to trample upon the rights of the sovereign country of Ukraine, that might spell disaster for democracy in general," he explained.
He noted that there is no way of knowing that Putin will stop with Ukraine and won’t invade other territories that were previously part of the Soviet Union, which Albert says could force a global power conflict.
"If we take him at his word for that speech he gave the other day, his intentions on that speech was to say that any former republic of the Soviet Union should still be inside the Russian Federation. So that means all 15 former republics, he thinks he has a claim to lay to those," Albert explained.
"We can’t really trust him at his word… but if he really believes that, that’s great concern for us."
Robert Austin, associate director of the Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Munk School of Global Affairs in Toronto, told CTVNews.ca on Wednesday that any "abrupt" reordering of international borders should matter to all countries.
Austin said in a telephone interview that Putin has decided "Ukraine actually doesn’t have the right to exist as a state."
"That is a major challenge in and of itself because if you think of the repercussions of that, you can imagine a number of other states that might take a similar position regarding existing international borders that we axjmtzywll deemed to be acceptable," Austin said.
He added that the "decidedly hostile" actions of Russia cut against everything Western countries stand for, "which is ultimately, sovereignty and the right to determine your own foreign policy."
"We should understand that a group of people — an entire nation — is being declined the right to decide their future, and I think that that matters a lot, and that shouldn’t just matter to a Canadian, that should matter to anyone," Austin said.
"The political trajectory of Ukraine’s independence, albeit imperfect and in some ways a low quality democracy, doesn’t mean that another power gets to decide where their future lies," he added.
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CANADA’S RESPONSE
The escalation in Ukraine has prompted a raft of economic sanctions against Russia from Western countries, including Canada and the U.S.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveiled Canada’s "first round" of economic sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, banning Canadians from all financial dealings with the "so-called independent states" of Donetsk and Luhansk and sanctioning members of the Russian parliament who voted in favour of declaring the regions as independent.
The government has also approved a deployment of up to 460 Canadian Armed Forces troops to Latvia as part of Operation REASSURANCE to "reinforce" Canada’s commitment to NATO.
"Make no mistake, this is a further invasion of a sovereign state and it is completely unacceptable," Trudeau said in a press conference.
Former Conservative defence minister Peter MacKay, who served under Stephen Harper, told CTV News Channel on Wednesday that these sanctions, and others from Western countries, will impact Russia’s economy and its ability to operate "in a very real way."
"Canada is taking still a measured response, but leaning forward now with more Magnitsky type sanctions, military support, including lethal weapons… and we’re doing this in a coordinated way through NATO and watching closely of course every step that the United States of America is taking," MacKay said.
However, he said sanctions likely won’t be enough to deter Putin from further advancement into Ukraine. Experts also warn Putin may withhold petroleum as retaliation to these sanctions, driving up oil prices and impacting global economies.
"The world is going to have to brace itself and continue to apply any and all pressure on all pressure points," MacKay said.
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Tuesday that should Russia escalate their tactics, Canada will be prepared to respond.
"We are prepared to target even more of Russia’s financial sector and oligarchy and we’re ready to make significant announcements related to Canadian exports to Russia," she said during the press conference.
While some are comparing the crisis to the run up to the Second World War, MacKay says "we’re not there yet."
"We’re in a very precarious position [but] Canada so far is doing its part and appears prepared to do more, which is positive," he said.
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A man waves a Ukrainian national flag as he attends a demonstration along the street near the Russian embassy to protest against the escalation of the tension between Russia and Ukraine in Berlin, Germany, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
