The United Arab Emirates surprised its Western allies last week when it abstained on a U.S.-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The move amounted to a declaration of neutrality from one of America’s closest Middle East allies in a war that has polarized the international community.
Anwar Gargash, adviser to the U.A.E. president, said taking sides "would only lead to more violence." The U.A.E.’s priority is "to encourage all parties to resort to diplomatic action and to negotiate to find a political solution," he said.
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The war in Ukraine, which began less than two months after the U.A.E. took a seat at the Security Council, has thrust the country’s changing foreign policy onto the world stage, showing how the Gulf state tries to juggle its ties between traditional allies and burgeoning partnerships. It also demonstrates the struggle faced by the West in getting unequivocal condemnation of Russia’s invasion from its allies.
The U.A.E. called for a "peaceful solution" to the "Ukraine crisis in a way that guarantees the interests and national security of all parties," the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi said in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. They also discussed energy cooperation.
Other Arab states have also refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion. Saudi Arabia, which counts Russia as its main partner in the OPEC+ alliance to coordinate oil output, said Tuesday it "supports international de-escalation efforts in Ukraine." The Arab League on Monday also called for de-escalation and restraint in a joint communique. Neither has condemned Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
"The U.A.E. [shouldn’t] be projected as a puppet of the United States anymore," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor in the U.A.E.. "Just because we have such great relations with America, we do not take orders from Washington, and we have to do things consistent with our own strategy and priority."
The U.A.E.’s apparent paving of an independent foreign policy comes amid Abu Dhabi’s frustration with the Biden administration’s treatment of issues of significance to the Gulf nation. Soon after Biden came to office, he removed the Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen from the U.S.’ list of terrorist organizations. Less than a year later, the Houthis have begun a campaign of fatal strikes on Abu Dhabi. The U.S. has pledged to bolster U.A.xjmtzywE. defenses, but Abu Dhabi wants a redesignation of the Houthis as terrorists.
In December, the U.A.E. suspended talks for a $23 billion deal with the U.S. to acquire F-35 fighter jets after the talks were stalled by the administration. Then, last month, it announced that it was buying fighter jets from China for the first time ever.
"The U.A.E. has yet to figure out how to navigate the new multipolar world," Cinzia Bianco, a research fellow on Europe and the Gulf at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said on Twitter. "The U.A.E. and other Gulf monarchies are re-evaluating relations with the U.S. who, in their strong view, reneged on its end of the bargain: providing security."
Meanwhile, ties with Moscow have only grown stronger.
Two years ago, the U.A.E.’s de facto ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin to the capital in a grand ceremony, during which the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince described Russia as his "second home" as Putin cemented $1.3 billion worth of energy and technology deals.
Local newspapers called it the beginning of a "special relationship" and ran live updates of the visit. "It was clear the two leaders share a strong personal bond," said Abu Dhabi’s The National newspaper.
Ultimately, however, "it is a bit of a risk to elevate the position of Russia as an equal of the U.S.," said Karen Young, senior fellow at Washington’s Middle East Institute. "[Staying neutral in the Ukraine conflict] is a calculation that Russia and Russian leadership will be useful to Emirati leadership."
The last time a U.S. president visited the U.A.E. was 14 years ago, when George W. Bush occupied the Oval Office. It was the only U.S. presidential visit to the country.
"You have long heard people in the Gulf, policymakers, say that when you shake Putin’s hand, you know he will keep his word," said Young. "[Putin] does what he wants, so I think there is a certain attraction in the Gulf to having that kind of certainty," she added. "The frustration with the U.S. is that when administrations change, policy changes, and that doesn’t happen in Russia — at least not yet."
Trade between the U.A.E. and Russia has been modest, but it has grown ten-fold since 1997, the Russian state news agency TASS reported.
As the third and seventh top oil producers respectively, Russia and the U.A.E. coordinate crude output policies under the OPEC+ alliance. The U.A.E. also depends heavily on Russian tourists. Russia grew to become the second-largest source market for Dubai’s tourism sector in 2021, climbing from eighth place in the previous year’s rankings, according state-run Wam news agency.
The relationship goes beyond energy and trade. Russia was the biggest wheat supplier to the U.A.E. last year with about 50 per cent market share, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The U.A.E. and other Gulf states will find themselves faced with situations like Ukraine "many times" again, wrote Bianco. "Hedging will be possible but limited."
Dubai’s former finance chief Nasser al-Shaikh said that neutrality may not be sustainable if the conflict drags on.
"It might be possible to maintain neutrality now… but not in the near future as things unfold/escalate. Very small window of opportunity," he tweeted.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan attend a signing ceremony following their talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Friday, June 1, 2018. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, Pool)
