The new modelling, provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide’s Professor Joshua Ross and Dr Thomas Prowse, analyses “increasing Transmission Potential in bundles at regular intervals” and models the trajectory of the virus if restrictions are lifted on February 15, February 29 and March 15.
It comes after Premier Steven Marshall flagged last week that restrictions on hospitality, tourism and fitness venues would ease every fortnight.
The model, publicly released by SA Health on Sunday, incorporates data up to January 26 and “figures presented to the COVID Ready Committee on 28th January 2022”.
The document states that a “Phase 2” lift of activity restrictions on February 15 would lead to a 10 per cent increase in transmission potential, as would a “Phase 3” lifting of activity restrictions on February 29.
A “Phase 4” lifting of restrictions on March 15 would lead to a 13 per cent increase in transmission potential.
“A larger exponential increase in case numbers can not be ruled out with high confidence,” the modellers state.
“Overall, it is estimated that this policy should not result in a second wave of cases, in that case numbers should mostly continue to decrease, although at a much slower rate than if (some) Activity Restrictions were to remain in place.”
Finally, the modellers note that waning booster immunity is likely to become a problem by mid-Autumn.
“We consider dynamics only up to the middle of April; it is anticipated that waning of 3rd dose boosters will start to become significant from late April, which is likely to require public health management and/or intervention,” the modellers state.
It comes after South Australia recorded one death and 1234 COVID-19 cases on Sunday, down from 1289 on Saturday.
There are currently 218 people in hospital, 13 in intensive care and five on a ventilator.
Marshall on Sunday announced that symptomatic close contacts are now required to have a PCR test, rather than two rapid tests.
“Everyone with symptoms, whether they be a close contact or someone who just develops symptoms, needs to have the PCR test, not the RAT test,” he told reporters yesterday.
“The RAT test will still be available for asymptomatic close contacts, so people can still go and collect those, but our strong advice is to have the PCR test.”
Stuart Highway reopening possible as weather clears
Parts of the Stuart Highway could reopen to all traffic by the end of the week after being cut off by damage and flooding from summer storms.
The critical road link, which services freight from Adelaide to Darwin, reopened to essential heavy freight and emergency service vehicles on Sunday, although in one direction only and at a maximum speed of 20km/h.
A 250km stretch of the highway between Glendambo and Coober Pedy has been impassable for more than two weeks due to 400ml deep floodwaters.
Footage of road & rail damage around Glendambo
For information on the staged re-opening of the Stuart Highway visit https://t.co/7Vf9miargy
Road closures https://t.co/yZu8eTIuow
Outback road warnings https://t.co/w2emPXNiF5Footage by SA SES – Remotely Piloted Aircraft Ops pic.twitter.com/aUnBU2lyD6
— SASES (@SA_SES) February 6, 2022
SES chief of staff Derren Halleday reported on Sunday that floodwaters had eased enough for heavy vehicle traffic to pass through between 7am to 7pm each day.
“The water down there has significantly subsided,” he told reporters.
“[There are] areas of the crest of the road that are now just 100ml underwater, certainly some islands showing up across the top there.”
Authorities plan to allow high clearance 4WD vehicles to cross in one direction at a maximum speed of 20km/h from tomorrow.
A road condition assessment will be conducted mid-week to determine whether blocks of traffic and light vehicles can travel on the road, while the highway at Glendambo “may be ready” to reopen to two-way traffic from Friday, albeit with lower speed limits.
Halleday said the freight movement means emergency air drops of supplies to cut off towns will begin to ease.
“There are ongoing flights being organised over the next couple of days but they are reducing significantly now as the transport industry is able to open up through those areas,” he said.
“We are anticipating that winding back significantly.”
Halleday also said the rail lines from SA to the Northern Territory and Western Australia which have been severed are not likely to be fixed before February 17 or 18.
In total forty-five local government areas have been affected by the state’s record summer storms, he said.
A major emergency declaration remains in place in response to the weather event.
Parliament returns amid scandal
Federal Parliament is returning for the first sitting week of the year with the focus on Scott Morrison and his government following a series of text message scandals, a slump in popularity and an ongoing aged care crisis.
Having been labelled a “horrible, horrible person” and a “complete psycho” in one leaked text message exchange between former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian and a federal cabinet minister, another from Barnaby Joyce, revealed on Friday, was even more damaging.
While the text was sent prior to Joyce returning to the role of deputy prime minister and nationals leader, it called Morrison “a hypocrite and a liar”. Joyce has subsequently apologised.
Morrison has brushed aside the text messages, saying he remains focused on getting the country through the pandemic but shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers described the government as a “smoking ruin”.
Character assassinations aside, a church service will be held before the House of Representatives and Senate get down to business on Tuesday afternoon.
Morrison will kick off the parliamentary year with a speech to mark the Queen’s 70th anniversary as monarch.
On the government’s agenda are religious discrimination laws, reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, federal family violence orders and changes to the pensions loans scheme.
The most controversial of these – the religious discrimination laws – are listed for debate in the House all day on Tuesday and pencilled in for the Senate on Wednesday.
The laws are expected to be amended to ensure schools cannot exclude same-sex attracted and gender diverse students.
When it comes to voting on bills, the government will be down at least one vote in the Senate with former Northern Territory CLP senator Sam McMahon to sit on the cross bench, angered over her dumping as a candidate for the next election and treatment by her party.
Several other government senators concerned over “vaccine mandates” have threatened to boycott legislation until their demands are met.
The lower house has also listed superannuation, NDIS and electoral laws for debate over the coming week.
Australia breaks winter Olympic gold drought
Jakara Anthony celebrates after winning gold in the Women’s Freestyle Skiing Moguls Finals last night (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Moguls skier Jakara Anthony has made history in Beijing after winning Australia’s first Winter Olympic gold medal since 2010.
The 23-year-old from Cairns on Sunday night became Australia’s first-ever women’s moguls Olympic champion and sixth-ever Winter Olympic gold medallist.
Her win in the event also marked the first time Australia has won two medals on the same day of competition at the Winter Games, after snowboarder Tess Coady’s bronze in the women’s slopestyle earlier in the day.
Anthony dominated both days of competition – topping all three rounds in the lead up to the six-woman final.
But she faxjmtzywced enormous pressure running last down the slope in the medal round, needing to beat a score of 80.28 set by second-to-last runner Jaelin Kauf from America.
Anthony managed to hold her nerve to score 83.09 points and take home Australia’s first Winter Olympic gold medal since Lydia Lassila won in aerial skiing at Vancouver 2010.
Frydenberg to unveil tax breaks for RATs
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has announced the federal government will provide tax breaks for businesses and individuals who use rapid antigen tests to be able to attend work.
In a speech on Monday, the treasurer will tell the Australian Industry Group the government is taking action to remove uncertainty around the tax treatments of these tests.
“Today, I’m announcing that we will ensure that COVID-19 testing expenses are tax deductible for testing taken to attend a place of work, giving businesses and individuals more clarity and assurance,” Frydenberg will say.
“We will also ensure that fringe benefits tax will not be incurred by employers where COVID-19 tests are provided to employees for this purpose.”
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is keen to open up Australia’s international border to tourists after the success of partial openings to students, backpackers and skilled migrants.
Morrison said many of the states have now passed their peaks in COVID-19 infections.
He said the government over recent weeks has asked for advice from health officials how reopening the borders could impact on the nation’s hospitals.
“But I really do not believe that is far away. As people will know, we have already opened up our borders to skilled migrants and backpackers and students,” he told reporters in Sydney on Sunday.
Unbeaten Crows stake premiership credentials
AFLW flag contenders Adelaide have overcome a wayward display in front of goal to post a comprehensive 39-point away victory over Carlton, extending their winning streak to five matches.
The unbeaten Crows wrested control of the contest during the second quarter but couldn’t make their dominance count fully on the scoreboard, posting 2.7 in the first half at Ikon Park.
It made for some nervous moments as the Blues ground their way back into the contest during the third term.
But outstanding performances from Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard, plus a four-goal blitz in the final quarter, steered the Crows home in a 7.9 (51) to 1.6 (12) win.
“It was great to get some reward but right across the game I was really happy with how we played,” Adelaide coach Matthew Clarke said.
“I just thought Carlton played pretty well, as well, and the midfield battle was really even.
“It was great to hang in there and then the last quarter went our way a little bit.”
