In the first few days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, military experts suggest the Russian military was underprepared for such an attack and underestimated the fallout they would receive.
Walter Dorn, professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College, said the first week or so of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been difficult for the Russian military — presumably more difficult than they had anticipated.
“I think that [Russian President Vladimir Putin] miscalculated and that the Ukrainians are putting up a much stiffer resistance, and that the Russians are in a very dangerous spot,” he said in a recent phone interview with CTVNews.ca.
“This is a case where Putin did not realize that he would get himself in such hot water, both through sanctions and through resistance.”
Jean-Francois Ratelle, a military expert and assistant professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Social Sciences, agreed that the Russian military seems unprepared for this level of an invasion, to its own detriment.
“With regards to communication, with regard to fuel and food, with regard to explaining the duty to different units and co-ordination between units, the co-ordination between units has been pretty devastating,” he said. “Russia has lost a lot of equipment, a lot more than we’re expecting.”
Allen Sens, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia with a focus on international security, said he believes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not gone as swiftly as they may have hoped, but that the current situation is still within the scope of Russia’s planning.
“My view is that what we’re seeing now — the heavy resistance — was within the bounds of Russian expectation, that they would have scenario planned this out and this is still within their range of expectations,” he said. “Now we’re seeing them carry out the second phase of the plan, the plan that is now activated because Ukrainian resistance is greater than the hoped for, best-case scenario.”
Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported on Wednesday that 2,870 Ukrainian troops and 498 Russian troops have died thus far in the invasion, though these estimates are unconfirmed and the real tally is likely much higher.
Ukraine has said that more than 2,000 civilians have died since the invasion began on Feb. 24.
Jean-Francois Ratelle, a military expert and assistant professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Social Sciences, said the civilian death toll could indicate that Russian forces may be coming desperate due to their own losses.
“Usually when they take those casualties, they will slowly but surely turn into indiscriminate artillery fire and that’s what we’re seeing,” he said. “Personally, I’m quite worried about Kyiv. What would be the next step when they surround it in the next couple of weeks and days.”
As of Wednesday afternoon, Ukrainian officials had most recently reported a missile strike near a railway in the capital of Kyiv, though it’s not clear how damaging the strike was, or how many causalities it caused.
During the initial days of the invasion reports circulated that Russian military forces were reportedly told they were going into Ukraine for a military exercise and were not aware they were participating in an invasion. The Russian government maintains its military is conducting a "special military operation."
Dorn said keeping its forces so out of the loop like that can hurt the force’s morale.
“I think a lot of the Russian troops are ill prepared for this kind of activity,” Dorn said. “They didn’t think that this is what they’ve been doing and they didn’t sign up for it.”
“Russia will have a morale problem with its troops. Overall, I think that even though the Russians have huge numbers and very sophisticated weaponry, they are at a disadvantage. I can’t see this going well for Russia militarily.”
Sens said the reports of low morale, including low food and military members quitting or tampering their vehicles, have little evidence to support them.
“The problem is we really don’t know how systemic they are across the entire Russian military effort,” he said. “We do know that some of the better units — the ones that are more prepared — they’re built around the professional contract soldiers that Russia has used now for the last 10 years or so, that morale is higher and their combat effectivenessxjmtzyw is higher.”
Dorn added that reports of the Russian military’s higher ranks not discussing the grand picture of a military action and the soldiers seemingly being left out of the loop is fairly normal in situations like this.
“If every soldier knew what the strategic plan was, that would also mean there are tremendous leaks that could go to the enemy,” he said. “You don’t normally tell the soldiers about what the overall plan is, they just have a certain task and objectives. That kind of complaining from soldiers is normal.”
“I think road signs is just a very small measure,” he said. “It’s not going to be a significant effect on the overall battle, but it can cause some units confusion and make them slow down or stop [to] figure out what’s going on.”
Ratelle believes the Russian military could sustain Ukrainian forces fighting back and the swift economic sanctions from around the world, but both at the same time has made things harder.
“I don’t think Moscow could have predicted that, and it put them in a difficult situation because they need to win quickly,” he said.
“With the sanctions, with the Ukrainian pressure, I think they didn’t expect both of them together.”
Despite the positive signs for Ukrainians in this first week of the conflict, Sens believes Ukraine needs to come to a diplomatic resolution to avoid a dire conclusion.
“The Ukrainian army really is defending in place,” he said. “They’re fighting in place and the problem with that is eventually, when you get overwhelmed by superior firepower, firepower and superior numbers, you can become encircled.”
“Once you are encircled and you have no prospect of relief, resupply or reinforcement, you’re in trouble.”
RELATED IMAGESview larger image
A man looks at the gutted remains of Russian military vehicles on a road in the town of Bucha, close to the capital Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, March 1, 2022. Russia on Tuesday stepped up shelling of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, pounding civilian targets there. (AP Photo/Serhii Nuzhnenko)
