More than a week into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its troops have made significant advances into the country, marking the biggest attack on a European state since the Second World War.
Around the world, concerns over a growing death toll, a desperate humanitarian crisis, and the threat of wider conflict are fuelling speculation about how the war in Ukraine might end.
While it’s impossible to predict the future, CTVNews.ca asked several experts with knowledge of Russian history, military efforts and the historical conflict between Russia and Ukraine to weigh in on some possible outcomes of the war.
A DEADLY CONCESSION FOR UKRAINE
For those familiar with Russia’s long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, the military action seen in Ukraine is frighteningly similar.
Grozny was largely devastated during the conflict – and now there are fears that the same could happen in Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv.
“If you look at Grozny during the Second Chechen War, and if you look at Aleppo during the Syrian war, Russia is experienced in this,” Florian Gassner, senior instructor of German and Central, Eastern and Northern European Studies at the University of British Columbia, told CTVNews.ca.
“It is, on the one hand, unimaginable that Russia would do this to Kyiv because Kyiv is part of Russian mythology, this is where Russians situate their own origins. But if you see what’s happening in Kharkiv right now, it is looking more and more like the Russian military is fighting a war of attrition against defenders that have dug in to draw a very painful concession from Ukrainians.”
Earlier this week a military strike devastated the centre of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, an attack Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called “frank, undisguised terror.”
Gassner says the approach is reminiscent of Russia’s tactic in Chechnya, noting “the blueprint is there” for Russia to overtake Kyiv.
In this case, the result could be that Russia sets up a puppet government and makes Ukraine a fiefdom of the Russian Federation.
A LONG, DRAWN-OUT CONFLICT
Lucan Way, co-director of the Petro Jacyk program for the Study of Ukraine at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policxjmtzywy, says it’s “very likely” that Russia will win nominal control over major cities in Ukraine, given the strength and size of the Russian army compared to Ukraine’s resources.
However, in light of the incredible morale Ukrainians have shown since the onset of the invasion, Way says it’s quite possible Ukraine will be able to push back for a long time.
“In contrast to what Putin said, there’s clearly a Ukrainian nation and a lot of Ukrainians have responded with incredible bravery against the invasion… at the same time there appears to be quite low morale among Russian soldiers,” Way told CTVNews.ca
“But given the fact that Putin has shown no proclivity to back down, I think this is going to drag out for quite a long time.”
A SHORT BATTLE
On the other hand, Way notes that it’s possible the sanctions levelled against Russia could put added pressure on Putin to escalate the violence in Ukraine and overtake cities quickly.
Allen Sens, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia with a focus on international security, notes that despite a solid effort by Ukrainian forces, their lack of arms and manpower would eventually catch up with them in this case.
“We’ve seen repeated reports of localized counterattacks by the Ukrainian Army, some counterattacks that can retake an airfield, counterattacks that could retake a town, counterattacks that can push Russian forces back from a certain part of the city, Sens said.
“But what that suggests is that the Ukrainian army really is defending in place. And the problem with that is eventually when you get overwhelmed by superior firepower and superior numbers you can become encircled.”
PUTIN IS OUSTED
Between 1991 and 1995, Russia’s GDP fell 34 per cent—worse than what the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression—disrupting the comfortable life many Russians had known during the Soviet Union.
When President Vladimir Putin first came in as president in 2000, high oil prices and a strong global economy had begun to turn things around. Putin capitalized on the coincidence claiming he restored Russia, according to Gassner, who says his popularity soared because of it.
“For [those who lived through the 90s], the Russia they live in today is the making of Putin. Even though more correctly speaking, it is the making of a serendipitous increase in the prices of crude oil and gas that allowed Putin to fund a state which is still extremely volatile,” said Gassner.
This is why some think the many sanctions placed on Russia in light of its attack on Ukraine may in fact lead to a revolution against Putin.
“This is really the first time since he’s been in power that the influence of the broader Russian elite and the interests of Putin have clearly diverged. He’s sort of set them on this course in a way that really hurts them in the pocketbook,” explained Way.
“I’m guessing that a lot of Russian elites would have preferred not to have gotten involved in this war and therefore might be willing to oppose Putin… We have no idea of knowing whether this is a real possibility, but there could be an internal coup against Putin.”
THE WAR SPILLS INTO NEIGHBOURING EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Among some of the grimmer concerns are fears that the war could spill outside of Ukraine’s borders, forcing other nations to take part in military action, or even sparking a World War scenario.
Way suggests that Russia would be reluctant to invade NATO allies intentionally.
“I think generally Putin would be reluctant to outright invade Poland or the Baltics precisely because they are members of NATO,” said Way.
“But you could easily imagine a scenario in which they try to block supply lines that are coming from the west of weapons and the like, and then either Russian warplanes inadvertently going into Western NATO airspace or them bombing a truck convoy that’s coming from Poland, in which case, that could easily escalate.”
But Gassner took a less optimistic view, suggesting the violence levelled against Ukrainian civilians may force NATO to act, prompting an all-out fight.
“It is starting to get difficult to justify not implementing a no-fly zone, and the no-fly zone could—and this is the fear and it’s probably not misplaced—lead to an armed conflict between Russia and NATO allies with European countries,” he said.
“And that is scary to imagine because right now Russia is only using a fraction of its air force over Ukrainian airspace… But if there’s an all-out war between the air forces allied with NATO and the Russian Air Force, that is as big as it gets. And that is inconceivable. But at this point, nobody would rule it out.”
RELATED IMAGESview larger image
Two women hold posters during a demonstration outside the embassy of France in Lisbon, in solidarity with the Ukrainian people, Friday, March 4, 2022. Demonstrations were organized outside a number of embassies Friday. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)
