The Canadian men’s national soccer team is on the verge of qualifying for the World Cup for just the second time ever.
The squad has been the class of CONCACAF up to this point, findinxjmtzywg itself at the top of the standings 11 matches into the final round of qualification, without even one loss on its record.
With three matches to go, Canada’s path to qualification is straightforward. Even if the team falters and fails to notch a single point from this point forward – a notion that long-suffering fans can’t quite get out of their head – it is still plausible that Canada could be part of the World Cup for the first time since 1986.
Here is a breakdown of the various paths and permutations that could leave Canada with a berth in Qatar.
BEAT COSTA RICA
The first of Canada’s final three qualifiers takes place Thursday night in Costa Rica.
This provides the squad with their simplest path to victory. If they win, they’re in.
Recent history is with them. A goal from Jonathan David lifted Canada to a 1-0 win over Costa Rica last November in Edmonton, and Canada knocked Costa Rica out of the Gold Cup with a 2-0 win last July.
However, Costa Rica will have plenty to play for themselves. They’re currently neck-and-neck with Panama for fourth place in the standings, which would land them one last chance at qualifying for Qatar later this year.
It’s also still mathematically possible for Costa Rica to leapfrog their way into one of the top three spots, which would net them an automatic place at the World Cup.
Many oddsmakers have Canada as only a slight favourite for this match, suggesting that a draw or loss would not be considered a major upset. If either of those results comes to pass, Canada’s path to qualification gets a little more complicated.
DRAW COSTA RICA, PLUS ONE MORE
Canada needs two points from its final three matches to guarantee a spot in Qatar, no matter the results of any other fixtures.
In soccer, a win is worth three points, and a draw worth one. Therefore, if Canada can pick up one point in Costa Rica and manage a draw in one of the other two matches, they will still reach the World Cup.
The better chance for this is likely to come Sunday afternoon, when Canada hosts Jamaica in Toronto. The Jamaicans are already mathematically eliminated from progressing any further and have only recorded one victory in their first 11 matches, though they did manage to hold Canada to a scoreless draw when they hosted them last October.
Canada’s final match of this round takes place March 30 in Panama. Given the current makeup of the standings, Panama will likely be fighting one last effort to either earn or hold onto a qualifying position.
LOSE TO COSTA RICA, THEN GET THE POINTS LATER
Similarly, a loss to Costa Rica would not be the end of the world for Canada. Beating either Jamaica or Panama would still get them into the World Cup, as would drawing both of those matches.
What a loss Thursday night would do is deprive Canada of the chance to make some CONCACAF qualification history.
The only time a North American side has made it through the gruelling final round of World Cup qualifying undefeated came in the run-up to the 1998 World Cup, when Mexico won four matches and lost six. (There were only six teams and 10 matches in the final round in those days; this is the first qualifier since the expansion to eight teams and 14 matches.)
Since Canada has already won seven matches and drawn four, some analysts have argued that finishing the round undefeated would give the team a claim for having the most impressive performance in the tournament’s history.
It’s not a formal title, but it would be a great feather in the cap for bragging rights and barroom arguments.
MISS TWO POINTS, BUT GET SOME HELP
Two points from three matches does not seem to be a tall order for this team, even with star winger Alphonso Davies sidelined as he recovers from myocarditis brought on by COVID-19.
Should fans’ worst fears come true, though, with the team falling apart and losing all three matches, there are still plenty of outcomes that could result in Canada landing a place in Qatar.
That could even happen as soon as Thursday night. If Panama fails to beat Honduras – unlikely, but not impossible – and Mexico beats the United States, there is no way Canada can finish lower than third place, even if they lose all three matches.
After that, it gets even more complicated – which helps explain why coach John Herdman has been adamant that his team’s goal isn’t just to qualify, but to finish in first place and keep their fate in their own hands.
For fans looking farther ahead than the next set of fixtures, the next big date to keep in mind is April 1, when the groups for the World Cup will be drawn. The tournament itself will be held between Nov. 21 and Dec. 18, with most matches taking place during the morning hours in North America due to the time difference with Qatar.
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Canada’s Jonathan David celebrates during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 at Cuscatlan stadium in San Salvador, El Salvador, Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
