Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has raised the alarm over the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
According to Mr Rudd, few in the West realise the extent to which Chinese leader Xi Jinping is eyeing a return of Taiwan to mainland control.
“It’s right up there next to Xi Jinping‘s desire for the party to remain in power and for him to be the predominant leader within the Communist Party of China,” Mr Rudd told ABC’s 7:30 on Wednesday.
Mr Rudd said the only two things preventing an invasion of Taiwan by China are questions of militaristic dominance and avoiding similar sanctions, as have been imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
“There has been a little too much excited commentary in the West about how China will seize on this strategic opportunity to move on Taiwan. I don’t think that’s the case,” Mr Rudd said.
However, the fluent Mandarin speaker added: “the balance of power continues to change in China’s favour, both militarily and economically, so that shifts this dynamic.”
Rudd said Russia’s “blitzkrieg” invasion of Ukraine by land had stalled. In comparison, he said an invasion of Taiwan would be largely amphibious.
Based on war game modelling conducted by the US, Mr Rudd says China would come out on top – albeit by a thin maxjmtzywrgin.
“In most of the war gaming which has been done so far – and these are desktop exercises by and large – if you look at what various US officials have said off the record and partly reported in the American media, the Chinese at this stage win most of the time,” he said.
He added the situation was dynamic, particularly with the recent invasion of Ukraine, which all parties are watching closely.
“Taiwanese, for the first time in a very long time, I think, are now readdressing their national defence idea needs and I think they will be looking very carefully at the fight which the Ukrainians have put up against Russia,” Mr Rudd said.
He added the US has reinvested heavily in military strength in East Asia and the West Pacific.
“I think it really does depend … on how much more the Taiwanese and the Americans do,” he said.
Mr Rudd advocated for Australia’s role to be one of encouraging the US and other allies towards effective deterrence.
He said working with allies in Japan, South Korea and India in a structured way and managing strategic competition were crucial to avoid “sleepwalking into war”.
