A sub-variant of COVID-19 that is expected to dominate in Australia this month may be up to 40 per cent more transmissible than the original virus, experts warn.
According to the World Health Organisation, BA. 2 differs from BA. 1 in its genetic sequence and has a growth advantage over BA. 1 but studies remain ongoing.
Australian Medical Association WA president Mark Duncan-Smith said the sub-variant was up to 40 per cent more transmissible, although some other experts have suggested it may be slightly lower than that.
But experts broadly agree, vaccination is the key to reducing the risk of hospitalisation.
Gaetan Burgio, from the Australian National University, told NCA NewsWire that the BA. 2 variant was as virulent as the Omicron virus.
“Importantly, if someone has been infected with Omicron virus, the risk of reinfection with BA. 2 would be very low,” he said.
Dr Burgio noted that in most States the BA. 2 variant had taken over Omicron and Delta.
“This is for example the case in ACT, Victoria, NSW and Queensland,” he said.
“The number of COVID-19 cases in Australia will steadily increase in the next three months, approximately.
“While more transmissible, the booster vaccination protects us relatively well against severe complications of the viruses.”
In NSW last week, Health Minister Brad Hazzard revealed cases could “more than double” in six weeks as a result of BA.2.
Western Australia is tipped to reach its peak of Omicron this week.
Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson said the BA. 2 sub-variant had already been factored into the State’s modelling.
Dr Burgio said given more than 60 per cent of the Australian population had received their booster vaccination, there was little concern — for now.
“However, as winter is approaching, co-infection with other respiratory viruses might change the level the level of concerns regarding the transmission and severity of this variant,” he said.
Dr Duncan-Smith said it was possible the flu shot would eventually be combined with a COVID-19 vaccine.
“As the virus becomes less severe and more infectious with the passage of time, it’s anticipated that over the years, it will be required that people will need ongoing boosters, similar to influenza,” he said.
“It is very early days as far as all this goes, but it is expected that with variants, as they travel around the world over the ensuing years, that a booster – which most likely will be able to be combined with the influenza vaccine – will be required.”
