From drones to rocket launchers, lethal weapons used by and supplied to Ukraine appear to have made a difference on the battlefield in the country’s ongoing war with Russia, some analysts say.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in late February, many felt the imbalance between the two countries’ militaries would swing the conflict in Russia’s favour.
Despite the grim outlook at the outset of the conflict, Ukraine’s armed forces have managed to maintain control over most of the country’s territory, including the capital Kyiv, with past training and a perceived low morale on the Russian side also cited as contributing factors.
Among the weapons Canada has supplied to Ukraine are M72 rocket launchers and Carl-Gustaf M2 anti-tank weapons systems.
And according to one report, Canada also is purchasing camera systems to be used by Ukraine on its Turkish-made drones, which at least one analyst says have been used to great effect.
CTVNews.ca spoke to experts about which pieces of military equipment have stood out in the continuing conflict, now three weeks in and with thousands of casualties estimated on all sides.
‘ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY’
Ukraine has been involved in a de facto war with Russia since its annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, following the Maidan revolution that ousted Ukraine’s Moscow-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych.
Since then, Ukraine also has been involved in a longstanding conflict with separatist forces in the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the country’s east.
Canada has trained Ukrainian security personnel since 2014 as part of Operation UNIFIER and supplied, along with its allies, weapons and non-lethal equipment to Ukraine, a type of "arsenal of democracy" says Walter Dorn, a professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ont., who spoke to CTVNews.ca in a Zoom interview on Tuesday.
- Latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war
Although Russia has a much larger armed force and military budget compared to Ukraine, Dorn says the order of battle, or the capabilities of both sides, has shifted.
Ukraine has banned men between 18 and 60 from leaving the country, increasing the size of its military personnel.
While Russia may have started with better weaponry, deploying more of its expensive, precision-guided "smart" bombs initially, it appears to be using less accurate "dumb" bombs, which risk missing their intended targets and harming civilians, Dorn says.
One piece that has proven to be "remarkably effective" for Ukraine, Dorn says, is the Bayraktar TB2, an unmanned combat aerial vehicle or drone, that can be used for reconnaissance and direct attacks.
Dorn, who has consulted the United Nations on drones and is the author of the book "Air Power in UN Operations: Wings for Peace," says these particular drones have proved popular, having seen action in Libya and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Able to fly at around 200 km/hr and with a wingspan of about 12 metres, the drone can launch from small airfields. It will typically fire at relatively low altitudes for better accuracy before moving to a higher altitude for protection, Dorn says.
Developed by the Turkish company Baykar, some estimates suggest Ukraine had as many as 50 drones before the recent escalation in the war, Dorn says, although the numbers are uncertain.
The drones also are usually equipped with the Canadian MX camera by Wescam, he added, which forms part of their targeting system.
This became a point of contention in the Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory that Armenia and Azerbaijan recently fought over.
Canada banned the export of its sensors to Turkey, despite its being a NATO ally, for the Bayraktar TB2, after it was determined they would be used by Azerbaijani forces. Then-foreign affairs minister Marc Garneau said, "This use was not consistent with Canadian foreign policy."
However, the Ottawa Citizen reported earlier this month that Canada would buy between 30 and 40 of these cameras for Ukraine.
"Canada totally backs the Ukrainian military, and so they would want them to have this kind of equipment," Dorn said.
Whether the cameras have been sent to Ukraine already is unclear, Dorn says. But Ukraine has since shared footage, taken from its drones, of successful launches, stopped convoys and blown up tanks.
And with lots of territory still under Ukrainian control, it leaves plenty of ways for Ukraine to use them, he says.
ANTI-TANK WEAPONS
Maureen Hiebert, an associate professor of political science and graduate program director at the Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary, says the anti-tank weapons Canada and others have supplied have been used to good effect.
"So it seems to me the kind of anti-air, anti-tank weaponry they’ve been provided with is making a difference, and it’s making a difference also because they’ve been so well trained and they’re able to use tactically this weaponry to its full advantage," Hiebert told CTVNews.ca during a phone interview on Monday.
Sean Maloney, a history professor at the Royal Military College, says the battle damage assessment, as seen from various videos, show that the Javelin missiles and NLAWs, or Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons, supplied to Ukraine by the U.S. and others have been "perfect" for the war environment in Ukraine.
"This is a war, and the more damage the Ukrainians can generate against the Russian forces, the better the outcome will be," he said in a phone interview on Monday.
But the key factor, he says, is morale. "The Ukrainians have it, the Russians do not."
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Despite pleas from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO has stopped short of enforcing a no-fly zone, while the U.S. has expressed shortcomings with transferring military jets through Poland in order to prevent further antagonizing Russia.
Heavy fighting has taken place in surrounding Kyiv suburbs as Russian forces attempt to surround the city as part of an apparent effort to lay siege to it.
Hiebert pointed to Russia’s use of standoff forces, namely long-range artillery, to destroy cities and target civilian populations, contrary to the general principle that militaries fight one another’s combatants.
"I don’t know what their strategy is going to be, but that seems to be their major playbook, and I can’t imagine they’ll take Kyiv in any different way than they’ve done with these other cities," Hiebert said.
However, she remains skeptical about Russia’s ability to fully control and occupy Ukraine indefinitely.
On top of ongoing battles to take the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv in the northeast and Mariupol in the southeast, Russia will not be able to stop the supply of military weapons across Ukraine’s borders, Dorn says.
Russia also has encountered protests and resistance in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson, although he expects forces will try to take control of Dnipro, situated along the Dnieper River northwest of Mariupol, which would serve as an important access route from the south.
He suspects Russia could be stockpiling much of its weaponry for its own defence, with the Putin regime potentially finding itself having to defend against attacks and other resistance movements later on.
"Russia is such a big country and Moscow can’t have thxjmtzywat centralized control if they’re preoccupied in an area like Ukraine," he said.
At this point, the best Putin can hope for is a stalemate and settlement at the negotiating table "that will let them leave with some dignity," Dorn says.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even said recently a neutral military status for Ukraine was being "seriously discussed."
"Now they’re in Ukrainian territory and the defenders have an advantage in that they know the territory better, they can set up ambushes, and usually we need three-to-one in terms of an attacker to defender in order to overcome the defences, and the Russians don’t have that," he said.
"So in my view, Russia will lose this war."
RELATED IMAGESview larger image
A Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone is seen during a rehearsal of a military parade dedicated to Independence Day in Kyiv, Ukraine, Aug. 20, 2021. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
