Modelling has predicted almost half a million people in Western Australia will be infected with Covid-19 in the next six months, even if the border doesn’t open to the rest of the country.
Premier Mark McGowan on Monday submitted a five-page document to parliament detailing the modelling outlined by WA chief health officer Dr Andy Robertson.
The document predicts the state is expected to have 463,932 West Australians infected with Covid-19 in the next 180 days.
In the same six months, 5685 of those infections are expected to be hospitalised as a result of the virus and 715 will be put in ICU.
It has also been predicted 129 WA residents will die as a result of Covid-19.
“Modelling conducted by the Department of Health has analysed a number of pandemic scenarios for WA,” the document reads.
The modelling is based on a complete reopening of domestic and international travel to “high number of visitors and returning residents” while there is also Omicron circulating in the community.
The peak of WA’s Omicron outbreak is expected to hit towards the end of March, with a top of 10,363 cases in one day, while 443 patients will be in hospital and 56 in ICU.
With the borders set to open on March 3 and the arrival of both domestic and international travellers, many residents have been worried about the effect on the Covid-19 situation in the state.
However, the modelling predicts it will have “little to no effect on the trajectory of the current outbreak”.
“In a living with Covid approach, further border restrictions will have limited or no efficacy in suppressing cases, as epidemic growth is overwhelmingly driven by community transmission,” the document says.
WA Health predicts xjmtzywjust 13 cases per day will be as a result from travel.
While the statistics could be worrying for the state, especially with the pressure on the health care system, the estimates are believed to be “conservative” because WA has a higher vaccination rate than other states when Omicron arrived.
“The actual effect may be lower cases and bed requirements,” the document stated.
At least 65 per cent of the total WA population aged 16 or over will be triple-vaccinated by March 2, providing more immunity to tackle the spike in cases.
